"This is a must-read for anyone involved in developing policy or making purchase decisions on programs that try to improve health and save money."

—Bob Galvin, Chief Executive Officer, Equity Healthcare (Blackstone Group); co-founder, Leapfrog Group; founder, Bridges to Excellence

"Lewis sugarcoats the bitter medicine of math with a generous amount of humor, making this the most painless lesson in outcomes analysis ever published. The lesson: trust your own judgment."

—Tom Scully, former Administrator, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services; Senior Counsel, Alston & Bird; Partner, Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe

"Lewis has single-handedly created what industry committees have failed to create: a how-to guide for valid outcomes analysis."

—Warren Todd, former President and Executive Director, the Care Continuum Alliance

Make better health care decisions by understanding your own data

Behind every health plan and benefits department decision are the numbers that illuminate and drive the cost of coverage. An easy-to-follow guide to population health management, Why Nobody Believes the Numbers helps you interpret these numbers, explains why and how "experts" often make them up, and shows that you don't need to rely on expensive—and as the hilarious examples show, often numerically challenged—consultants and vendors to do evaluations. Why Nobody Believes the Numbers gives you the tools to:

• Figure out whether you are "moving the needle" or just crediting a program with changes that would have happened anyway
• Determine whether the ROIs your vendors report are plausible or even arithmetically possible (the majority aren't)
• Synthesize all these insights into RFPs and contracts that let vendors know that you weren't born yesterday