Forecast Verification
A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science

SECOND EDITION

For more than 100 years, meteorologists have been making forecasts of weather and climatic events. In order to judge the quality of these forecasts and improve forecasting systems, scientists working in this fi eld have developed and applied many diff erent verifi cation and evaluation techniques and scores. Forecast verification is concerned with judging how good these systems and forecasts are.

Forecast Verifi cation: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal to professional practitioners, researchers and postgraduates. Each chapter is clearly presented by a variety of leading experts in the fi eld while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. Th e book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas.

• Practical and expert advice using real life examples to illustrate techniques
• Clear, easy to read style
• Completely updated chapter on the verifi cation of spatial forecasts taking account of the wealth of new research in the area
• Separate chapters on probability forecasts and ensemble forecasts
• New chapter on warnings and forecasts of extreme or rare events
• New chapter on seasonal and climate forecasts
• Written by leading contributors in the fi eld

Reviews of fi rst edition:

"This book will provide a good reference, and I recommend it especially for developers and evaluators of statistical forecast systems." (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, April 2004)

"...a good mixture of theory and practical applications...well organized and clearly written..." (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, January 2005)

"...a mandatory acquisition for those who have an interest in forecast evaluation..." (International Journal of Forecasting, April-June 2006)